About these two models
This tool ships two simulators of the same OwnPiece pack-opening business — customers
deposit, buy a mystery pack, reveal a card by odds, then keep it or sell it back for store
credit. They answer different questions.
Base Model
Establishes the core economics: house edge, inventory depletion by rarity, which card classes
bottleneck first, and gross profitability. It runs customers one at a time, which keeps the unit
economics clean and easy to verify — but by construction it cannot show liquidity
risk (each customer always funds their own withdrawals), it counts only the house's take
(not operating costs), and it assumes card prices never move.
Trust its inventory and profitability signals; treat its capital and return figures as an
illustrative upper bound.
Advanced Model
Built to pressure-test the things the Base Model assumes away — the failure modes that actually
decide whether a business like this survives:
1. Concurrent redemption (the bank-run test). Customers across the whole
population hold store credit and can cash out at the same time, including a configurable
redemption-shock event. This is the real risk: cash is tied up in inventory while many holders
redeem at once. The model shows when liquidity runs short and how large a reserve actually
protects you.
2. The full cost stack. Customer acquisition, operating expense, payment
processing, minting/gas, vault storage, and shipping/insurance on physical redemptions — so
margin and return are real numbers, not just the house edge.
3. Card prices move. Listed values drift and fluctuate over time, which turns
the buyback promise into a price-risk obligation: a fixed-percentage buyback is effectively a
guarantee written against a moving market. The model shows the exposure.
It also adds the three real pack tiers (Rookie / All-Star / Pro), inventory aging, and a
sensitivity view that ranks which assumptions move the outcome most.
How to read it
The Base Model tells you whether the unit economics work. The Advanced Model tells you whether
the business is survivable and fundable once real-world frictions and concurrent
customer behaviour are in play. Every input is adjustable — the defaults are illustrative starting
points, not OwnPiece's actual figures.
Out of scope — and one real-world flag
Secondary marketplace / royalties, $COLT token economics, the KYC flow, and real
database integration are out of scope for this simulator. Regulatory and gambling-licensing
analysis is also out of scope — but note it is a genuine business risk for a pack-opening (gacha)
product, and should be assessed separately. It is flagged here deliberately; it is not a
simulation parameter.
